Why the Crunch will win:
The Crunch Won the Regular Season Series: In the regular season, the Crunch and the Baby Pens played four games. The Crunch won three of them while the Penguins won once. That one win for WBS came in overtime. This bodes well for the Crunch. This is an opponent they know well and can beat. However, each game was decided by only one goal. If the trend continues, expect every game in this series to be close. Hopefully the Crunch can get that one extra goal that beats the Pens.
Healthy Returns: In the last games of the regular season, the Crunch were without players due to injuries and call-ups. Though some players, like Vladdy and Vlasy, are probably staying in Tampa for the NHL playoffs, there are others who are going to return and provide a huge boost. Captain Mike Angelidis and Assistant Captain Joey Mormina are on track to return from injury and bring their gritty leadership to the team. It is also good to see Luke Witkowski back with the team and boosting the defense. Now, if Tampa Bay is eliminated by Detroit before the series is over (I can only pray,) the Crunch may get some help sent down to them and propel them to victories. However, I do feel with the talent the Crunch has right now, with guys like Gourde, Marchessault, Ikonen, and Richard, the Crunch can go on a deep playoff run.
Why the Crunch will Fall:
The Slump: The Crunch fell apart at the end of the season. It was embarrassing. Losing to teams like the Flames, Sound Tigers, and Devils is bad. Losing to them with epic collapses in the third period in each game, even more humiliating. This Crunch team has problems holding on late in the game. They start fast then fall flat on their butt by the end of the first period. The penalty kill has been doing better, but not by much. Our power play is horrendous. We play better when we are a man down. This slump is overbearing and something that won't be broken easily. Unless something big happens to the Crunch or the Penguins catch the slump bug, I don't think the Crunch will break from this.
Pens Have Power Between the Pipes: The Penguins defense give up an average of only 2.11 goals per game. That's crazy good. Why is that so good? Really good goalies. Matt Murray was named the AHL Goalie of the Year award, with 25 wins in 39 games and a 1.51 goals against average. Talk about trying to beat a brick wall. Then, there is his partner in crime Jeff Zatkoff. Another force to be reckoned with. Together, they won the AHL's Best Goalie Duo Award by only letting in 163 goals the entire 2013-14 season. Here's what I'm seeing right now. I'm looking at a Crunch team who is not very good on offense going up against two goalies who don't let opponents score many goals. Bottom line, the Crunch aren't going to being lighting up the goal in this series.
Questionable Goalies: Gudlevskis is a strong goalie with little defensive support. However, there are plenty of times recently where he has been a major part in the Crunch's collapse. Also, he is not strong enough to start every night. This wasn't a big problem when the Crunch had Vlasy in the wings. However, Adam Wilcox is not Vlasy. Wilcox is a good college goalie who is yet to make a statement in professional hockey. Maybe the playoffs will bring out his full potential and I'll be surprised. However, the inexperience between our pipes is not a good thing. If I'm Zettler, I'm telling the defense to do whatever they can to keep the Pens away from the goalie.
Two Different Crunch Teams: When the Crunch faced the Penguins in the regular season, they were stacked with our original starters and stars. However, the team we have now is very, very different. Like I've stated, they don't have Vladdy or Vlasy on