At this very moment, both Rochester and Syracuse have a .523 points percentage, even though the Americans have a 32-29-2-1 record and the Crunch have a record of 28-25-10-3. It is important to note that Rochester has 67 points while Syracuse has 69. Syracuse also leads in goals for (184) while Rochester has conceded fewer goals (207.) The two final important standings factors are Syracuse having a lower goal differential than Rochester (-24 vs. -31) and Syracuse having a lower magic number to clinch a spot (28). So, besides having a worse record than Rochester, how could Syracuse not be holding the final playoff spot?
Right away, several people have questioned why the Crunch aren't holding the playoff spot over Rochester for the reason of points. I have to remind everyone that points no longer act as the main measure of determining the AHL standings. While the NHL still uses points to calculate their standings, the AHL now bases their standings upon points percentage first. Points only matter in determining tiebreakers if teams are tied for playoff spots when the season has concluded. The biggest thing people are missing though is not what the teams have already accumulated, but what remains. Notice the games remaining in the playoff primer. Syracuse only has ten games left compare to Rochester's twelve. Does this matter? Extremely! With only ten games left, the Crunch can only increase their points percentage to a maximum of .586 and gain at most 20 points. That is only possible if the Crunch win out. On the other hand, Rochester has two more games left than Syracuse. With those two extra games, the Americans have the chance to get their points percentage up to a max of .599 and gain up to 24 points. In that situation, Rochester would clearly get the spot over Syracuse. For Rochester, having more games remaining plays an addition advantage when it comes to pressure to win. The best way to approach it is to think of it as fouls to give in basketball. In basketball, teams can accumulate a number of team fouls before the opponent gets automatic free throw attempts, meaning the possibility of points and a major effect on the final score. For Rochester, they can lose twice and still finish holding the playoff spot over the Crunch. However, once they lose more than two games, any Crunch wins will draw the teams closer in the standings and might even have the Crunch leap into the playoff spot.
Now, let's say Syracuse and Rochester finish with the same records and point percentage. Who would get the playoff spot then? According to the Playoff Primer, a tie is broken by comparing percentage of games won (excluding shootout wins), points in a season series, goal differential, goals scored in a season series, and inter-conference points percentage. Broken down based on current totals, Syracuse only owns goal differential (-24). However, everything can change in the next couple weeks. The bad news, Syracuse can not control total points in the season series. Currently, the Amerks have 16 points against Syracuse, who only has 7. Even if Syracuse wins the final two games against Rochester, they would only reach 11 points at most. Thanks to Syracuse's terrible overtime record and late game collapses, Rochester controls the win percentage not only in the overall season, but also against the Crunch. If the Crunch want to even come close to controlling that tiebreaker, they need to win out. Concerning the final two tiebreakers, those are still very much up in the air. Right now, Rochester has scored seven more goals than Syracuse in their season series (33-26.) In order for Syracuse to gain control of that tie breaker, they would need to score eight or more goals in their last two games against the Amerks. That number can grow depending on how many goals Rochester scores in those two games. Basically, if you're the Crunch, score a ton while keeping the Amerks off the sheet. Concerning inter-conference points percentage, Syracuse can grab onto that tiebreaker. While Syracuse plays only teams in the Eastern Conference for the rest of the season, Rochester plays four games against Western Conference foes. Those games will not factor into the tie-breaker. This means Syracuse has a greater number of games to improve their Eastern Conference record and gain the tie breaker over Rochester.
Wrapping things up, if the Syracuse Crunch want into the playoffs, they will need to win and win often. Losses are more deadly than ever and can be the difference between the post-season and hitting the golf course. The same goes for the Rochester Americans. And that only goes for if they remain the only two teams hunting for that final playoff spot. St. John's is still lurking in the background and could make it a three-way race or tie. If Utica continues to lose, they could easily lose their safe third spot and be left fighting for that final fourth spot. You never know, Syracuse or Rochester could find their way up to the third spot and watch as the other teams fight over the final spot. There is even a shot both the third and fourth spot will be up for grabs in the final games. No matter, AHL fans are in for some great action and thrilling suspense in the next couple weeks.
Thanks/Credit:
http://theahl.com/playoff-primer-2016-p201276
theahl.com
syracusecrunch.com
amerks.com